Understanding projections and scenarios

<strong>Projections</strong> and <strong>scenarios</strong> extend your current figures to show you how your situation could evolve. Instead of looking only at the present, you explore possible trajectories and test the effect of your decisions, all within a clear and readable frame.

Reading a projection

A projection starts from your recent habits (your money coming in, your money going out, your saving pace) and extends them over the coming months. Rather than a single figure, Noryo shows a <strong>range</strong> that recognises the future is not certain.

The range reads from bottom to top: the cautious assumption sets the lower bound, the median represents the most likely scenario, the favourable assumption sets the upper bound. Reality usually lies between these bounds.

The range of assumptions

Each projection rests on three assumptions that Noryo calculates for you from your history. They help you reason without giving you a false sense of precision.

• <strong>Cautious</strong>: a tighter pace, to anticipate hard times
• <strong>Median</strong>: the continuation of your current habits
• <strong>Favourable</strong>: a more generous trajectory if all goes well

Stress scenarios

A stress scenario answers the question: what would happen if? You simulate an event and watch its effect on your trajectory, without changing anything in your real accounts.

• A <strong>drop in income</strong> (unemployment, slower activity)
• An <strong>exceptional expense</strong> (a repair, a major purchase)
• A period of stronger <strong>inflation</strong>
• An additional <strong>saving effort</strong> you want to test

Over what horizon?

You can project over several months. The further the horizon, the wider the range: this is normal, uncertainty grows with time. For short term decisions, rely mainly on the lower part of the range.

Interpreting your results well

A projection is a thinking tool, not a crystal ball. Update it regularly, compare several scenarios before a big decision, and keep in mind that your everyday choices remain the main lever of your trajectory.

Track your wealthConnect your projections to the overall view of your wealth.