Understanding projections and scenarios
Anticipate your financial trajectory and test scenarios, such as a drop in income or an unexpected expense.
Projections and scenarios extend your current figures to show you how your situation could evolve. Instead of looking only at the present, you explore possible trajectories and test the effect of your decisions, all within a clear and readable frame.
Projections and scenarios are included from the Premium plan. Advanced scenarios come with the Ultra plan. Find the details on the Subscription screen in the app.
Reading a projection
A projection starts from your recent habits (your money coming in, your money going out, your saving pace) and extends them over the coming months. Rather than a single figure, Noryo shows a range that recognises the future is not certain.
| Assumption | What it assumes | What it is for |
|---|---|---|
| Cautious | A pace less favourable than usual | Anticipate, keep a safety margin |
| Median | The continuation of your current habits | The most likely scenario day to day |
| Favourable | A more generous trajectory | See the potential if all goes well |
The range reads from bottom to top: the cautious assumption sets the lower bound, the median represents the most likely scenario, the favourable assumption sets the upper bound. Reality usually lies between these bounds.
The range of assumptions
Each projection rests on three assumptions that Noryo calculates for you from your history. They help you reason without giving you a false sense of precision.
- Cautious: a tighter pace, to anticipate hard times
- Median: the continuation of your current habits
- Favourable: a more generous trajectory if all goes well
Stress scenarios
A stress scenario answers the question: what would happen if? You simulate an event and watch its effect on your trajectory, without changing anything in your real accounts.
- A drop in income (unemployment, slower activity)
- An exceptional expense (a repair, a major purchase)
- A period of stronger inflation
- An additional saving effort you want to test
The vocabulary of projections
- Projection
- The extension of your recent habits over the coming months, shown as a range.
- Range
- The gap between the cautious assumption and the favourable assumption, around the median.
- Stress scenario
- A simulation of an event (a drop in income, an exceptional expense) to measure its effect.
- Horizon
- The length of time you look ahead. The longer it is, the more uncertainty grows.
Projections and scenarios are estimates based on your data and on assumptions. They are meant to inform your thinking and in no way constitute investment advice or a guarantee of results.
Over what horizon?
You can project over several months. The further the horizon, the wider the range: this is normal, uncertainty grows with time. For short term decisions, rely mainly on the lower part of the range.
Frequently asked questions
Why does the range widen over time?
Because uncertainty grows with the horizon. The further you look, the larger the possible gaps. This is expected and healthy.
Do my scenarios change my accounts?
No. A scenario is a simulation. It has no effect on your accounts, your budgets or your real transactions.
How often should I update a projection?
Check it whenever a situation clearly changes (new income, a large purchase) and before any important decision.
Interpreting your results well
A projection is a thinking tool, not a crystal ball. Update it regularly, compare several scenarios before a big decision, and keep in mind that your everyday choices remain the main lever of your trajectory.
Connect your projections to the overall view of your wealth.